Methodology · verified October 23, 2026
Every number on this site's cliff pages comes from four public inputs and one formula. Here they all are, with sources — so you can check our maths instead of trusting us.
For 2027 coverage, the exchange uses the 2026 HHS poverty guidelines. The enhanced premium tax credits expired December 31, 2025 and were not renewed, so the hard cutoff is back: at even $1 of MAGI over 400% FPL, the premium tax credit is zero — not reduced, zero.
| Household | Contiguous US + DC | Alaska | Hawaii |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 person | $63,840 | $79,800 | $73,440 |
| 2 people | $86,560 | $108,200 | $99,560 |
| 3 people | $109,280 | $136,600 | $125,680 |
| 4 people | $132,000 | $165,000 | $151,800 |
These are final — published by HHS/ASPE, not estimated.
Below the cliff, the credit formula expects you to contribute a share of your income toward the benchmark silver premium. For 2027 the IRS set that share at 2.15% to 10.22% of income, rising with income (IRS Rev. Proc. 2026-26, at irs.gov). From 300% to 400% FPL the share is flat at 10.22% — up from 9.96% in 2026. So a single person at exactly $63,840 of MAGI is expected to pay about $544/month toward the benchmark plan; $1 more of income removes the entire credit.
The other input is the second-lowest-cost silver plan (the "benchmark") for your age and county. Final 2027 county figures publish around the start of open enrollment. Until then, state-level 2027 estimates on this site are:
2026 KFF average benchmark premium (second-lowest-cost silver, age 40, county-selection weighted) × (1 + the state's 2027 weighted-average individual-market rate change) from healthinsurance.org (updated September 25, 2026; weighted by county plan selections).
Insurers' 2027 rate changes range from about 3% (Vermont) to about 29% (Arizona), median roughly 15% — and about half of states' rates were still proposed, not final, when estimated. Where we show a 2027 dollar figure, we say it's an estimate and tell you to confirm the exact number at HealthCare.gov's "See Plans & Prices" before acting.
Premiums are age-rated at 3:1 — a 64-year-old pays about three times a 21-year-old for the same plan. We scale the age-40 benchmark by each household member's factor on the CMS default federal age curve, with state-specific curves where they exist (DC, MA, NJ, UT). New York and Vermont are community-rated (no age variation) and use family-tier pricing instead. This is why the cliff hits the 55–64 crowd hardest: the benchmark — and therefore the credit you lose — is biggest at exactly the ages when the marketplace is your only option.
In words: what the benchmark plan costs you for the year at full price, minus what you'd have paid for it at 10.22% of the cliff-line income. That difference is the annual premium tax credit that disappears at $1 over the line.
Worked example. A Texas couple, 58 and 56, at $90,000 MAGI: the benchmark silver plan costs about $2,903/month at full price ($34,836/year); just under the $86,560 cliff line they'd pay about $737/month ($8,844/year — the 10.22% share). The credit that vanishes at $1 over: roughly $25,990/year. At the extremes, published state tables put the 2027 loss for a 60-year-old couple near $55,800/year in West Virginia (highest) and about $11,900 in New York (lowest) — same formula, different state benchmarks.
Distance example. A couple at $90,000 MAGI against the $86,560 line is $3,440 over — the whole credit gone. One person at $60,000 MAGI against the $63,840 line has $3,840 of headroom.
Your county will differ. State averages sit within ~2% of county figures in our spot checks, but your county, your plan, and your insurers are your own. Confirm at HealthCare.gov.
Congress could still act. As of October 23, 2026 no restoration of the enhanced credits is law. If that changes mid-season, the cliff maths change with it — we'll update the figures and say so on the page.
We're new. HumanicShift is built for the 2027 enrollment season. We have no track record, no customer testimonials, and we're not a CFP® — this is education and planning support, not regulated financial advice. A tax professional who understands the premium credit is worth their fee for your specific numbers.
Sources, October 2026: 2026 HHS/ASPE poverty guidelines (400% FPL lines) · IRS Rev. Proc. 2026-26 (2027 applicable percentages 2.15%–10.22%; find it at irs.gov) · KFF State Health Facts, 2026 marketplace average benchmark premiums · healthinsurance.org weighted 2027 rate changes (updated Sep 25, 2026) · CMS default federal age curve · KFF Marketplace Calculator (cross-check) · enhanced-credit expiration and 2027 cliff status: taxpayers.net, grantshubusa.com · 2027 open enrollment Nov 1, 2026 – Jan 15, 2027 (federal); enroll by Dec 15, 2026 for Jan 1 coverage · repayment-cap removal from tax year 2026: OBBBA §71305, IRS fact sheet.
Figures verified October 23, 2026. This page is updated when a source input changes.
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