Data · 2027 estimates · updated October 23, 2026

What $1 over the cliff costs, state by state

Annual premium tax credit lost by earning $1 past 400% of the federal poverty level — benchmark silver plan, state averages, for couples aged 55, 60 and 64. Sorted by the age-60 couple column.

$55,831

Highest: West Virginia, couple 60

$11,938

Lowest: New York, couple 60

41 of 51

States + DC above $20,000 for a couple at 60

StateCouple 55Couple 60Couple 642027 rate chg
West Virginia$44,297$55,831$62,647+18.3%*
Alaska$42,043$53,568$60,379+22.9%*
Wyoming$41,952$52,977$59,492+11.3%*
Connecticut$31,650$40,439$45,632+11.2%
Montana$26,666$34,374$38,928+22.6%
Arkansas$26,038$33,609$38,083+7.6%*
Kansas$25,996$33,558$38,027+24.2%*
Maine$25,242$32,641$37,013+14.8%
Alabama$24,907$32,233$36,562+25%
Mississippi$24,907$32,233$36,562+21.8%*
Delaware$24,865$32,182$36,506+16.5%
Nebraska$24,823$32,131$36,449+13.3%*
Tennessee$24,698$31,978$36,280+12.7%*
Florida$24,321$31,520$35,773+15.9%*
New Mexico$23,609$30,653$34,816+24.4%
Louisiana$23,106$30,041$34,139+18.1%
Texas$22,478$29,277$33,294+13.1%*
Washington$22,478$29,277$33,294+22.2%
Georgia$22,227$28,971$32,956+20.7%
Wisconsin$22,143$28,869$32,844+21.1%*
Illinois$22,018$28,716$32,675+14.1%*
North Carolina$21,850$28,512$32,449+14.9%*
Oklahoma$21,557$28,156$32,055+20.2%*
South Dakota$21,431$28,003$31,886+10.4%
Kentucky$20,468$26,831$30,590+18.7%*
Arizona$19,882$26,117$29,801+29%*
Missouri$19,672$25,862$29,520+12.5%*
District of Columbia$19,735$25,771$27,123+9.9%
North Dakota$19,086$25,149$28,731+17.1%
Pennsylvania$18,961$24,996$28,562+16%
Oregon$18,793$24,792$28,337+21.6%
South Carolina$18,709$24,690$28,224+16.6%*
Utah$19,837$24,403$24,403+6.7%
Vermont$23,266$23,266$23,266+3%
California$17,369$23,059$26,421+9.9%*
Colorado$16,825$22,396$25,689+10%
Michigan$16,238$21,683$24,900+14.5%
Nevada$15,862$21,224$24,393+18.8%
Hawaii$14,994$20,456$23,684+11.1%
Rhode Island$14,982$20,154$23,210+12.4%
Ohio$14,940$20,103$23,154+10.7%*
Indiana$14,480$19,542$22,534+17.5%
Idaho$14,145$19,135$22,083+12%
Iowa$13,349$18,166$21,013+5.7%
Minnesota$13,223$18,013$20,844+17.7%
Virginia$13,223$18,013$20,844+15.8%
New Jersey$13,973$16,923$16,923+20.4%*
New Hampshire$11,046$15,363$17,914+18.4%*
Maryland$11,004$15,312$17,858+14.6%
Massachusetts$10,181$13,442$13,442+10.8%
New York$11,938$11,938$11,938+6%

How to read this table

credit lost = 12 × household benchmark premium − 10.22% × (400% FPL income)

Each figure is the full-year premium tax credit that disappears when a household's MAGI lands $1 over 400% of the federal poverty level ($86,560 for a couple in the contiguous US, 2027 coverage). The benchmark is the second-lowest-cost silver plan, age-rated — which is why the loss grows from 55 to 64 and why pre-Medicare households face the biggest numbers. New York and Vermont are community-rated (no age variation), which is why their columns are flat. Full derivation: our methodology page.

These are 2027 estimates, not final rates. Each state's 2027 figure is its 2026 KFF benchmark premium × (1 + the state's weighted-average 2027 rate change). Rate changes marked * were still proposed, not regulator-approved, as of September 25, 2026. KFF publishes final 2027 benchmarks around the start of open enrollment — this table will be refreshed then, and the refresh date noted here.

Your county will differ from the state average — confirm your exact benchmark at HealthCare.gov's "See Plans & Prices" before acting. And if Congress restores the enhanced credits mid-season, the cliff maths change; we'll update and say so.

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Sources & computation, October 23, 2026: 2026 benchmark premiums: KFF State Health Facts (second-lowest-cost silver, age 40, county-selection weighted) · 2027 rate changes: healthinsurance.org weighted averages, updated Sep 25, 2026 (* = proposed) · applicable percentage 10.22%: IRS Rev. Proc. 2026-26 · 400% FPL lines: 2026 HHS/ASPE poverty guidelines · age rating: CMS default federal age curve (state-specific curves for DC, MA, NJ, UT; community rating for NY, VT). Figures cross-checked against the independent ACA Cliff Atlas computation (same public inputs and formula): extremes and distribution match (WV $55,831; NY $11,938; 41 of 51 jurisdictions above $20,000 for a couple at 60). Table extracted October 23, 2026; refreshed when KFF publishes final 2027 benchmarks (~Nov 1).

Educational data, not tax or financial advice. State averages; your county, plan and circumstances will differ.

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